AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, Lárnaka (Larnaca)
The Footlab AI model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Nea Salamis. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,798 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis?
AEK Larnaca starts as the favourite with a 228-point Elo edge (2,046 vs 1,818).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AEK Larnaca
4-2-3-1- 11R. Bajić
- 14A. Layouni
- 7Gus Ledes
- 20J. Repas
- 21Miramón
- 9Đ. Ivanović
- 15H. Miličević
- 23S. Köhler
- 22G. Ekpolo
- 3M. van der Hoorn
- 92A. Paleari
Nea Salamis
4-4-1-1- 17Aldair
- 7S. Grandsir
- 71G. Gerolemou
- 6Georgios Christodoulou
- 88Jordi Quintillà
- 10C. Giousis
- 29F. Hanin
- 4P. Artymatas
- 55Sergio González
- 30A. Panagiotou Filiotis
- 1Alberto Varó
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 03:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEK Larnaca have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Nea Salamis have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Aris(away) | 1-1 | 1. Division |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Nea Salamis(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Omonia 29is Maiou(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 2-4 | 1. Division |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Apoel Nicosia(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Ermis(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 27, 2026 | AEK Larnaca(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Anorthosis(home) | 3-0 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 AEK Larnaca wins, 1 draw, 0 Nea Salamis wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | AEK Larnaca 2-1 Nea Salamis | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Nea Salamis 1-4 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Jan 12, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 2-0 Nea Salamis | 1. Division |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Nea Salamis 1-3 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Jan 12, 2024 | Nea Salamis 0-1 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Sep 30, 2023 | AEK Larnaca 1-1 Nea Salamis | 1. Division |
Last archived meeting: AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis on Sep 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AEK Larnaca score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Nea Salamis score 2.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Larnaca | 1.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Nea Salamis | 2.3 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AEK Larnaca sit 3rd in 1. Division (12 points from 5 matches) and Nea Salamis sit 11th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 4 |
A question about AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis?
- The Footlab AI model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Nea Salamis.
- Where and when is AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis played?
- AEK Larnaca vs Nea Salamis is played on December 19, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.