Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 6, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Championship Soccer Stadium, Irvine, California
The Footlab model makes Sacramento Republic the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Orange County SC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Orange County SC (1,706) and Sacramento Republic (1,805).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orange County SC have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Sacramento Republic have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Tulsa(home) | 1-5 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 2-3 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies(home) | 0-3 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | El Paso Locomotive(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Monterey Bay(away) | 2-1 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(home) | 2-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lexington(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FC Tulsa(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sporting JAX(home) | 5-0 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Orange County SC win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Sacramento Republic win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sacramento Republic 3-2 Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Sacramento Republic 0-0 Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Sacramento Republic 2-1 Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Orange County SC 1-0 Sacramento Republic | USL League One Cup |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Orange County SC 2-1 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Orange County SC 0-2 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Orange County SC score 1.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sacramento Republic score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County SC | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Sacramento Republic | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orange County SC sit 2nd in USL Championship (20 points from 12 matches) and Sacramento Republic sit 6th (16 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Orange County SC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Orange County SC | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 32 | 30 | 34 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 18 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic?
- The Footlab model makes Sacramento Republic the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Orange County SC.
- Where and when is Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic played?
- Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic is played on September 6, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Championship Soccer Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots