Oriental vs Uruguay Montevideo: prediction and stats
Segunda División2nd Phase - 23Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Parque Oriental, La Paz
The Footlab AI model makes Oriental the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Uruguay Montevideo. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oriental vs Uruguay Montevideo?
Oriental starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,684 vs 1,505).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Oriental vs Uruguay Montevideo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Oriental
Not enough data to predict the Oriental lineup.
Uruguay Montevideo
Not enough data to predict the Uruguay Montevideo lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 11:09 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oriental have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Uruguay Montevideo have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | CA River Plate(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Colón(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Fenix(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Rentistas(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Central Espanol(away) | 1-1 | Copa Uruguay |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Colón(home) | 1-3 | Segunda División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Fenix(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Rentistas(home) | 1-3 | Segunda División |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Miramar(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tacuarembo(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Oriental wins, 1 draw, 2 Uruguay Montevideo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2025 | Uruguay Montevideo 0-4 Oriental | Segunda División |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Oriental 1-1 Uruguay Montevideo | Segunda División |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Oriental 0-2 Uruguay Montevideo | Segunda División |
| Jun 2, 2024 | Uruguay Montevideo 2-1 Oriental | Segunda División |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Oriental 3-2 Uruguay Montevideo | Segunda División |
| Oct 25, 2023 | Uruguay Montevideo 0-1 Oriental | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Uruguay Montevideo vs Oriental on Sep 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Oriental score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Uruguay Montevideo score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oriental | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Uruguay Montevideo | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Oriental sit 6th in Segunda División (32 points from 22 matches) and Uruguay Montevideo sit 14th (17 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Oriental | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 30 | 25 | 32 |
| 14 | Uruguay Montevideo | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 34 | 17 |
A question about Oriental vs Uruguay Montevideo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oriental vs Uruguay Montevideo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Oriental the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Uruguay Montevideo.
- Where and when is Oriental vs Uruguay Montevideo played?
- Oriental vs Uruguay Montevideo is played on October 18, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Oriental, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.