Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew: prediction and stats
US Open CupSemi-finalsKick-off on September 16, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Inter&Co Stadium, Orlando, Florida
The Footlab model makes Orlando City SC the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Columbus Crew. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Orlando City SC (1,801) and Columbus Crew (1,823).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orlando City SC have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Columbus Crew have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Chicago Fire(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 2-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leon(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nashville SC(away) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | CF Montreal(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 11, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | CF Pachuca(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Orlando City SC win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Columbus Crew win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Columbus Crew 1-1 Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Orlando City SC 1-1 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Columbus Crew 1-3 Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Columbus Crew 4-3 Orlando City SC | Major League Soccer |
| May 25, 2024 | Orlando City SC 0-2 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Orlando City SC 0-2 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Columbus Crew vs Orlando City SC on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Orlando City SC score 2.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Columbus Crew score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Columbus Crew | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?
- The Footlab model makes Orlando City SC the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Columbus Crew.
- Where and when is Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew played?
- Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew is played on September 16, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Inter&Co Stadium, in the US Open Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.