St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids: prediction and stats
US Open CupSemi-finalsKick-off on September 16, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)CITYPARK, St. Louis, Missouri
The Footlab model makes St. Louis City the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Colorado Rapids. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate St. Louis City (1,806) and Colorado Rapids (1,757).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, St. Louis City have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Colorado Rapids have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes(away) | 3-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Colorado Rapids(home) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | San Diego(away) | 0-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(home) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City(home) | 2-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Austin(home) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | St. Louis City(away) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 St. Louis City win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Colorado Rapids win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | St. Louis City 1-0 Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer |
| May 10, 2026 | Colorado Rapids 0-1 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| May 25, 2025 | Colorado Rapids 1-0 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| Feb 23, 2025 | St. Louis City 0-0 Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 8, 2024 | Colorado Rapids 4-1 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 20, 2024 | St. Louis City 0-3 Colorado Rapids | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids on Jul 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
St. Louis City score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Colorado Rapids score 0.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City | 1.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Colorado Rapids | 0.8 | 0.9 | 7 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids?
- The Footlab model makes St. Louis City the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Colorado Rapids.
- Where and when is St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids played?
- St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids is played on September 16, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at CITYPARK, in the US Open Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.