Aubagne vs Orleans: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 14Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade de Lattre de Tassigny, Aubagne
The Footlab AI model makes Orleans the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Aubagne. The most likely score is 1-1. If Orleans wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aubagne vs Orleans?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Aubagne (1,762) and Orleans (1,855).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aubagne vs Orleans
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aubagne
4-1-4-1- 17J. Porsan-Clemente
- 18A. Oudjani
- 10K. Cissé
- 27J. Sahraoui
- 24S. Ahamada
- 22Walid Bouaziz
- 26M. Nehari
- 23Y. Aradj
- 5R. Doucouré
- 4R. Valme
- 16T. Moreira
Orleans
4-1-4-1- 19R. Legendre
- 7M. Diako
- 20B. Dali Amar
- 11G. Berthier
- 21L. Raillot
- 6H. Aubourg
- 5M. Sylla Diallo
- 3T. Ndicka
- 27M. Lemaitre
- 24I. Dramé
- 1F. Faham
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 03:21 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aubagne have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Orleans have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | La Roche VF(away) | 1-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Fleury 91(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rouen(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Concarneau(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Bastia(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cannes(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Amiens(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Versailles(home) | 0-4 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Le Puy Foot(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Aubagne wins, 0 draws, 2 Orleans wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Aubagne 0-2 Orleans | Ligue 3 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Orleans 2-4 Aubagne | Ligue 3 |
| May 2, 2025 | Aubagne 1-0 Orleans | Ligue 3 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | Orleans 2-1 Aubagne | Ligue 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Aubagne score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Orleans score 1.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aubagne | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Orleans | 1.0 | 1.4 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aubagne sit 16th in Ligue 3 (7 points from 9 matches) and Orleans sit 14th (9 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 9 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 7 |
A question about Aubagne vs Orleans?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aubagne vs Orleans?
- The Footlab AI model makes Orleans the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Aubagne.
- Where and when is Aubagne vs Orleans played?
- Aubagne vs Orleans is played on December 5, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade de Lattre de Tassigny, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.