Orsha vs Niva: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 27Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Haradski, Orsha
The Footlab model makes Niva the favourite at 72%, against 16% for a draw and 12% for Orsha. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orsha vs Niva?
Niva starts as the favourite with a 284-point Elo edge (1,562 vs 1,278).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orsha have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Niva have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | BATE II(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Uni Minsk(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Molodechno-DYuSSh 4(home) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Gomel II(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shakhter Soligorsk(home) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Lida(away) | 2-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shakhter Soligorsk(away) | 6-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Slutsk(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dinamo Minsk II(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Orsha win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Niva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Niva 1-1 Orsha | 1. Division |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Orsha 1-4 Niva | 1. Division |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Niva 2-1 Orsha | 1. Division |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Niva 1-1 Orsha | 1. Division |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Orsha 3-5 Niva | 1. Division |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Niva 3-1 Orsha | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Orsha score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Niva score 2.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orsha | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Niva | 2.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orsha sit 15th in 1. Division (22 points from 20 matches) and Niva sit 1st (42 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niva | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 51 | 26 | 42 |
| 9 | Niva | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 17 |
| 12 | Orsha | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 11 |
| 15 | Orsha | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 35 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orsha vs Niva?
- The Footlab model makes Niva the favourite at 72%, against 16% for a draw and 12% for Orsha.
- Where and when is Orsha vs Niva played?
- Orsha vs Niva is played on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Haradski, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.