Smorgon vs Osipovichy: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 27Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Junatstva, Smorgon
The Footlab model makes Smorgon the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Osipovichy. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Smorgon vs Osipovichy?
Smorgon starts as the favourite with a 204-point Elo edge (1,431 vs 1,227).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Smorgon have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Osipovichy have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ostrovets FC(home) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Slonim(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | BATE II(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Uni Minsk(away) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Molodechno-DYuSSh 4(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Slutsk(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dinamo Minsk II(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ostrovets FC(away) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Slonim(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Smorgon win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Osipovichy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Osipovichy 0-5 Smorgon | 1. Division |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Osipovichy 0-4 Smorgon | 1. Division |
| May 21, 2022 | Smorgon 1-0 Osipovichy | 1. Division |
| Oct 7, 2017 | Osipovichy 1-1 Smorgon | 1. Division |
| Jun 10, 2017 | Smorgon 1-2 Osipovichy | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Smorgon score 2.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Osipovichy score 1.2 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smorgon | 2.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Osipovichy | 1.2 | 2.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Smorgon sit 14th in 1. Division (23 points from 21 matches) and Osipovichy sit 18th (17 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Smorgon | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 30 | 23 |
| 16 | Smorgon | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 10 |
| 18 | Osipovichy | 21 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 23 | 51 | 17 |
| 18 | Osipovichy | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Smorgon vs Osipovichy?
- The Footlab model makes Smorgon the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Osipovichy.
- Where and when is Smorgon vs Osipovichy played?
- Smorgon vs Osipovichy is played on October 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Junatstva, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.