Orsomarso vs Real Soacha: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 6Kick-off on August 24, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata, Barrancabermeja
The Footlab model makes Real Soacha the favourite at 34%, against 33% for a draw and 33% for Orsomarso. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orsomarso vs Real Soacha?
Real Soacha starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,596 vs 1,496).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orsomarso have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Real Soacha have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Patriotas(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Union Magdalena(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| May 20, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(away) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
| May 16, 2026 | Independiente Medellin(home) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Leones FC(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Popayan(home) | 3-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Real Cartagena(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Envigado(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| May 26, 2026 | Águilas Doradas(home) | 2-2 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Orsomarso win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Real Soacha win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Real Soacha 1-0 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Real Soacha 1-1 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Apr 28, 2025 | Orsomarso 0-1 Real Soacha | Primera B |
| Jul 22, 2024 | Real Soacha 2-0 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Orsomarso 1-1 Real Soacha | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Real Soacha vs Orsomarso on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Orsomarso score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Real Soacha score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orsomarso | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Real Soacha | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orsomarso sit 10th in Primera B (17 points from 15 matches) and Real Soacha sit 13th (13 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Soacha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Real Soacha | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 6 | Orsomarso | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Orsomarso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Orsomarso | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 22 |
| 12 | Real Soacha | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 19 | 23 | 18 |
| 13 | Real Soacha | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 13 |
| 13 | Real Soacha | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orsomarso vs Real Soacha?
- The Footlab model makes Real Soacha the favourite at 34%, against 33% for a draw and 33% for Orsomarso.
- Where and when is Orsomarso vs Real Soacha played?
- Orsomarso vs Real Soacha is played on August 24, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.