Envigado vs Orsomarso: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 7Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Polideportivo Sur, Envigado
The Footlab model makes Envigado the favourite at 54%, against 29% for a draw and 17% for Orsomarso. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Envigado vs Orsomarso?
Envigado starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,640 vs 1,496).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Envigado have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Orsomarso have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Quindio(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Once Caldas(home) | 0-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Real Soacha(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Patriotas(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Union Magdalena(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| May 20, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(away) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
| May 16, 2026 | Independiente Medellin(home) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Envigado win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Orsomarso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Orsomarso 0-1 Envigado | Primera B |
| May 30, 2025 | Orsomarso 0-1 Envigado | Copa Colombia |
| Mar 20, 2024 | Orsomarso 0-1 Envigado | Copa Colombia |
| Mar 5, 2024 | Envigado 1-0 Orsomarso | Copa Colombia |
How many goals should we expect?
Envigado score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Orsomarso score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Envigado | 1.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Orsomarso | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Envigado sit 2nd in Primera B (33 points from 17 matches) and Orsomarso sit 10th (17 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Envigado | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 1 | Envigado | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 23 | 48 |
| 2 | Envigado | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 33 |
| 4 | Envigado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 14 | 29 |
| 6 | Envigado | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Orsomarso | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Envigado | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Orsomarso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Orsomarso | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Envigado vs Orsomarso?
- The Footlab model makes Envigado the favourite at 54%, against 29% for a draw and 17% for Orsomarso.
- Where and when is Envigado vs Orsomarso played?
- Envigado vs Orsomarso is played on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Polideportivo Sur, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.