Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea
The Footlab model makes Osasuna the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Osasuna (2,057) and Rayo Vallecano (2,098).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Osasuna have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Rayo Vallecano have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Al Ain(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Osasuna win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Rayo Vallecano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Osasuna 2-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 3-1 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Dec 15, 2023 | Osasuna 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Osasuna score 1.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
- The Footlab model makes Osasuna the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano played?
- Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Sadar, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.