Athletic Club vs Alaves: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Alaves. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Alaves?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Athletic Club (2,084) and Alaves (2,077).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Alaves have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Eibar(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Athletic Club win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Alaves win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Alaves 2-4 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Athletic Club 0-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Athletic Club | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 11, 2025 | Athletic Club 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Alaves 1-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Athletic Club 2-0 Alaves | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Alaves vs Athletic Club on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2.3 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Alaves | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Alaves?
- The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Alaves played?
- Athletic Club vs Alaves is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at San Mamés Barria, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.