Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Real Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Atletico Madrid (2,246) and Real Madrid (2,340).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Real Madrid have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atletico Madrid win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Real Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Real Madrid 3-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid | Super Cup |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 5-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 12, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Real Madrid 2-1 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Madrid sit 4th in La Liga (3 points from 1 matches) and Real Madrid sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Real Madrid.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.