Sevilla vs Barcelona: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla
The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Sevilla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sevilla vs Barcelona?
Barcelona is a heavy favourite: 2,385 Elo points against 2,039 — a 346-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sevilla have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Barcelona have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Al Ahly(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Basel 1893(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sevilla win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Barcelona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Barcelona 5-2 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Sevilla 4-1 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Sevilla 1-4 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Barcelona 5-1 Sevilla | La Liga |
| May 26, 2024 | Sevilla 1-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Sep 29, 2023 | Barcelona 1-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Sevilla score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Barcelona score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Barcelona | 2.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sevilla vs Barcelona?
- The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Sevilla.
- Where and when is Sevilla vs Barcelona played?
- Sevilla vs Barcelona is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.