Österlen vs Karlshamn: prediction and stats
Division 2 - Södra GötalandSödra Götaland - 20Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Skillinge Idrottsplats, Simrishamn
The Footlab model makes Österlen the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Karlshamn. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Österlen vs Karlshamn?
Österlen starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,428 vs 1,296).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Österlen have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Karlshamn have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Räppe(away) | 1-1 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Oskarshamns AIK(home) | 0-3 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sölvesborg(home) | 4-1 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Linero(away) | 2-0 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Karlskrona(home) | 0-3 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sölvesborg(away) | 1-2 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Aug 15, 2026 | IFK Trelleborg(home) | 1-5 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oskarshamns AIK(away) | 0-5 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Räppe(home) | 2-2 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Linero(away) | 1-3 | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Österlen win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Karlshamn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Karlshamn 0-1 Österlen | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Österlen 1-3 Karlshamn | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Karlshamn 0-2 Österlen | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Österlen 4-1 Karlshamn | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| May 4, 2024 | Karlshamn 1-2 Österlen | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
| Sep 6, 2020 | Österlen 3-1 Karlshamn | Division 2 - Södra Götaland |
How many goals should we expect?
Österlen score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Karlshamn score 1.1 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Österlen | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Karlshamn | 1.1 | 2.5 | 1 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Österlen sit 8th in Division 2 - Södra Götaland (18 points from 13 matches) and Karlshamn sit 14th (7 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Österlen | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| 8 | Österlen | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 26 | 25 |
| 14 | Karlshamn | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 26 | 7 |
| 14 | Karlshamn | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 43 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Österlen vs Karlshamn?
- The Footlab model makes Österlen the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Karlshamn.
- Where and when is Österlen vs Karlshamn played?
- Österlen vs Karlshamn is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Skillinge Idrottsplats, in the Division 2 - Södra Götaland.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.