Ostia Mare vs Livorno: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone BGirone B - 31Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Anco Marzio, Lido di Ostia
The Footlab model makes Ostia Mare the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Livorno. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ostia Mare vs Livorno?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Ostia Mare (1,819) and Livorno (1,828).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ostia Mare have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Livorno have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Perugia(away) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Latina(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 13, 2026 | Grosseto(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Championship Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Torres(home) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Reggiana(home) | 3-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Empoli(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pontedera(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Ostia Mare win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Livorno win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | Ostia Mare 0-2 Livorno | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Livorno 2-0 Ostia Mare | Serie D - Girone E |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Ostia Mare 1-1 Livorno | Serie D - Girone E |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Livorno 3-1 Ostia Mare | Serie D - Girone E |
How many goals should we expect?
Ostia Mare score 1.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Livorno score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ostia Mare | 1.2 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Livorno | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ostia Mare sit 16th in Serie C - Girone B (0 points from 1 matches) and Livorno sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Livorno | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Ostia Mare | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ostia Mare vs Livorno?
- The Footlab model makes Ostia Mare the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Livorno.
- Where and when is Ostia Mare vs Livorno played?
- Ostia Mare vs Livorno is played on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Anco Marzio, in the Serie C - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.