Ostia Mare vs Perugia: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone BGirone B - 20Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Anco Marzio, Lido di Ostia
The Footlab AI model makes Ostia Mare the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Perugia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ostia Mare wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ostia Mare vs Perugia?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Ostia Mare (1,752) and Perugia (1,701).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ostia Mare vs Perugia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ostia Mare
4-3-3- 77F. Tosku
- 17F. D'Andrea
- 9R. Tonin
- 32F. Casolari
- 71F. Carbone
- 8D. Greco
- 13R. Brosco
- 4D. Piroli
- 5P. Giordani
- 27M. Vagnoni
- 1F. Vertua
Perugia
4-3-3- 9A. Sabbatani
- 90E. Vergani
- 10L. Canotto
- 8R. Ladinetti
- 33C. Langella
- 30P. van Amersfoort
- 4A. Tozzuolo
- 28D. Riccardi
- 11M. Borsoi
- 5F. Brekalo
- 1R. Żelezny
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ostia Mare have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Perugia have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pianese(home) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Latina(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Forli(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Gubbio(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Ravenna(home) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Vado(home) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Gubbio(away) | 3-1 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Reggiana(home) | 1-0 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Grosseto(away) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone B |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Spezia(home) | 0-3 | Serie C - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Ostia Mare wins, 0 draws, 1 Perugia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Perugia 1-0 Ostia Mare | Serie C - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Perugia vs Ostia Mare on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ostia Mare score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Perugia score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ostia Mare | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Perugia | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ostia Mare sit 13th in Serie C - Girone B (9 points from 9 matches) and Perugia sit 8th (13 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Perugia | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 13 |
| 13 | Ostia Mare | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
A question about Ostia Mare vs Perugia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ostia Mare vs Perugia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ostia Mare the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Perugia.
- Where and when is Ostia Mare vs Perugia played?
- Ostia Mare vs Perugia is played on January 3, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Anco Marzio, in the Serie C - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.