Oviedo vs Burgos: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo
The Footlab model makes Oviedo the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Burgos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oviedo vs Burgos?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Oviedo (1,947) and Burgos (2,008).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oviedo have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Burgos have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Granada CF(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 1. FC Nürnberg(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Ponferradina(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 31, 2026 | FC Andorra(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Oviedo win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Burgos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | Burgos 1-2 Oviedo | Segunda División |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Oviedo 3-1 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Oviedo 5-0 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Burgos 1-0 Oviedo | Segunda División |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Oviedo 0-1 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Sep 10, 2022 | Burgos 0-0 Oviedo | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Oviedo score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Burgos score 1.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Burgos | 1.1 | 0.8 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Oviedo sit 15th in Segunda División (1 points from 1 matches) and Burgos sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Burgos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Oviedo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oviedo vs Burgos?
- The Footlab model makes Oviedo the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Burgos.
- Where and when is Oviedo vs Burgos played?
- Oviedo vs Burgos is played on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.