Numancia vs Oviedo: prediction and stats
Copa del ReyRound of 128Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, Soria
The Footlab AI model makes Oviedo the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Numancia. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,046 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Numancia vs Oviedo?
On Elo ratings, Numancia has 1,981 points and Oviedo 1,995.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Numancia vs Oviedo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Numancia
4-3-3- 9Jony González
- 14Alejandro Gil Rochina
- 26C. Godson
- 8M. Gning
- 5O. De Frutos
- 6N. Lucas Rey
- 2Marcos Sánchez
- 16Carlos Gutiérrez
- 22Fermín Ruiz
- 4Ian Olivera
- 1M. Abad
Oviedo
4-4-2- 10Alberto Reina
- 18V. Mingo
- 5Y. Didi
- 8Mikel Goti
- 16Aritz Aldasoro
- 32Enzo Perez
- 12Dani Calvo
- 23Carlos Domínguez
- 15S. Rodriguez
- 21David Jiménez
- 13Aarón Escandell
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 06:31 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Numancia have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Oviedo have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | CF Talavera(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Ávila(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Getafe II(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Guadalajara(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | SS Reyes(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Eibar(home) | 3-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Eldense(away) | 1-4 | Segunda División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sabadell(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Numancia wins, 1 draw, 3 Oviedo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2020 | Numancia 1-0 Oviedo | Segunda División |
| Oct 6, 2019 | Oviedo 1-1 Numancia | Segunda División |
| May 19, 2019 | Oviedo 1-0 Numancia | Segunda División |
| Jan 7, 2019 | Numancia 2-3 Oviedo | Segunda División |
| Apr 29, 2018 | Numancia 3-0 Oviedo | Segunda División |
| Nov 25, 2017 | Oviedo 3-1 Numancia | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Numancia score 1.1 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Oviedo score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Numancia | 1.1 | 0.5 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Oviedo | 1.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Numancia vs Oviedo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Numancia vs Oviedo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Oviedo the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Numancia.
- Where and when is Numancia vs Oviedo played?
- Numancia vs Oviedo is played on October 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, in the Copa del Rey.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.