Paide vs Kalju Nomme: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Paide linnastaadion, Paide
The Footlab model makes Kalju Nomme the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Paide. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paide vs Kalju Nomme?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Paide (1,686) and Kalju Nomme (1,716).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paide have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Kalju Nomme have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme United(home) | 4-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Trans Narva(away) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(home) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kuressaare(home) | 1-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Laagri(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vaprus(home) | 3-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Poseidon(away) | 12-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Trans Narva(away) | 2-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tammeka(home) | 5-1 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Paide win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Kalju Nomme win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Kalju Nomme 1-1 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Kalju Nomme 1-1 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Paide 1-0 Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Paide 2-1 Kalju Nomme | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Kalju Nomme 1-1 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Paide 1-1 Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
How many goals should we expect?
Paide score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Kalju Nomme score 2.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paide | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Kalju Nomme | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paide sit 4th in Meistriliiga (39 points from 23 matches) and Kalju Nomme sit 2nd (44 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kalju Nomme | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 19 | 44 |
| 4 | Paide | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 30 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paide vs Kalju Nomme?
- The Footlab model makes Kalju Nomme the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Paide.
- Where and when is Paide vs Kalju Nomme played?
- Paide vs Kalju Nomme is played on October 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Paide linnastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.