Trans Narva vs Nõmme United: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Kalevi Staadion, Narva
The Footlab model makes Nõmme United the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Trans Narva. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Trans Narva vs Nõmme United?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Trans Narva (1,463) and Nõmme United (1,518).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Trans Narva have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Nõmme United have 6, 0 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-4 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Paide(home) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kompanii Marjamaa(home) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(home) | 0-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nõmme United(away) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paide(away) | 1-4 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Hiiumaa(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Tammeka(home) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trans Narva(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Trans Narva win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Nõmme United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nõmme United 1-2 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Trans Narva 1-2 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Nõmme United 5-1 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Trans Narva 3-4 Nõmme United | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Nõmme United 0-4 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 26, 2024 | Trans Narva 2-1 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Nõmme United vs Trans Narva on Jul 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Trans Narva score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Nõmme United score 2.0 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trans Narva | 1.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Nõmme United | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Trans Narva sit 10th in Meistriliiga (17 points from 24 matches) and Nõmme United sit 8th (25 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nõmme United | 24 | 8 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 58 | 25 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 55 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Trans Narva vs Nõmme United?
- The Footlab model makes Nõmme United the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Trans Narva.
- Where and when is Trans Narva vs Nõmme United played?
- Trans Narva vs Nõmme United is played on October 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Kalevi Staadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.