Vaprus vs Kuressaare: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Pärnu Rannastaadion, Pärnu
The Footlab model makes Vaprus the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Kuressaare. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vaprus vs Kuressaare?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Vaprus (1,554) and Kuressaare (1,468).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vaprus have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Kuressaare have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(away) | 1-3 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Phoenix(away) | 5-0 | Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Tabasalu Ulasabat(away) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tammeka(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(away) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kristiine JK(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Laagri(home) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Paide(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Vaprus win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Kuressaare win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Vaprus 1-0 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Kuressaare 0-1 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Vaprus 9-2 Kuressaare | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Vaprus 0-1 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Kuressaare 2-1 Vaprus | Meistriliiga |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Vaprus 2-1 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
How many goals should we expect?
Vaprus score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Kuressaare score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaprus | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Kuressaare | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vaprus sit 7th in Meistriliiga (27 points from 23 matches) and Kuressaare sit 9th (24 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Vaprus | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 44 | 27 |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 39 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vaprus vs Kuressaare?
- The Footlab model makes Vaprus the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Kuressaare.
- Where and when is Vaprus vs Kuressaare played?
- Vaprus vs Kuressaare is played on October 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Pärnu Rannastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.