Match

Vaprus vs Kuressaare: prediction and stats

MeistriliigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Pärnu Rannastaadion, Pärnu

VaprusKuressaare

The Footlab AI model makes Vaprus the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Kuressaare. The most likely score is 1-1. If Vaprus wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,156 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Vaprus vs Kuressaare?

A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Vaprus (1,569) and Kuressaare (1,541).

43%26%31%
Vaprus winDrawKuressaare win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Vaprus vs Kuressaare

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Vaprus

3-4-1-2
  1. 8T. Pajo
  2. 10S. Viidas
  1. 20H. Välja
  2. 90J. Sild
  3. 24Mathias Villota
  4. 14R. Orm
  5. 42M. Limberg
  1. 28M. Lipp
  2. 66U. Nomm
  3. 15K. Aloe
  1. 16O. Nõmm

Kuressaare

4-5-1
  1. 9A. Švedovski
  1. 8D. Andreas
  2. 28R. Lukas
  3. 80R. Tarkmeel
  4. 5S. Sinilaid
  5. 7R. Talu
  1. 21M. Lukka
  2. 36R. Piil
  3. 27S. Prunn
  4. 68Johann Vahermägi
  1. 31K. Nõmm

Computed on October 24, 2026 at 05:38 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vaprus have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Kuressaare have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Vaprus
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 23, 2026Nõmme United(away)2-4Meistriliiga
Oct 18, 2026Laagri(away)0-2Meistriliiga
Oct 13, 2026Kalju Nomme(home)2-2Meistriliiga
Oct 10, 2026Trans Narva(home)2-2Meistriliiga
Sep 20, 2026Flora Tallinn(away)2-3Meistriliiga
Kuressaare
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026FC Levadia Tallinn(home)0-2Meistriliiga
Oct 14, 2026Trans Narva(away)1-0Meistriliiga
Oct 11, 2026Flora Tallinn(home)2-0Meistriliiga
Oct 3, 2026Saku Sporting(home)4-2Cup
Sep 18, 2026Laagri(away)0-0Meistriliiga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Vaprus wins, 1 draw, 2 Kuressaare wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 29, 2026Kuressaare 2-2 VaprusMeistriliiga
Jun 26, 2026Vaprus 1-0 KuressaareMeistriliiga
Apr 21, 2026Kuressaare 0-1 VaprusMeistriliiga
Jan 31, 2026Vaprus 9-2 KuressaareFriendlies Clubs
Oct 21, 2025Vaprus 0-1 KuressaareMeistriliiga
Jul 20, 2025Kuressaare 2-1 VaprusMeistriliiga

Last archived meeting: Kuressaare vs Vaprus on Aug 29, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Vaprus score 1.6 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Kuressaare score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Vaprus1.62.1210/1511/15
Kuressaare2.11.447/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Vaprus sit 7th in Meistriliiga (36 points from 32 matches) and Kuressaare sit 8th (35 points from 32 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Vaprus3210616436336
8Kuressaare3210517345135

A question about Vaprus vs Kuressaare?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Vaprus vs Kuressaare?
The Footlab AI model makes Vaprus the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Kuressaare.
Where and when is Vaprus vs Kuressaare played?
Vaprus vs Kuressaare is played on October 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Pärnu Rannastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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