Match

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama: prediction and stats

Copa Do BrasilSemi-finalsKick-off on November 1, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Allianz Parque, São Paulo, São Paulo

PalmeirasVasco DA Gama

The Footlab AI model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Vasco DA Gama. The most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,752 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?

Palmeiras starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,973 vs 1,828).

54%27%19%
Palmeiras winDrawVasco DA Gama win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Palmeiras

3-4-2-1
  1. 42J. López
  1. 30Lucas Evangelista
  2. 11J. Arias
  3. 4A. Giay
  4. 17Marlon Freitas
  5. 8Andreas Pereira
  6. 22J. Piquerez
  1. 2A. Barboza
  2. 15G. Gómez
  3. 26Murilo
  1. 1Carlos Miguel

Vasco DA Gama

4-2-3-1
  1. 19Bruno Duarte
  1. 22A. Lescano
  2. 5S. Sosa
  3. 23Thiago Mendes
  4. 11A. Gómez
  5. 9F. Colidio
  1. 30Robert Renan
  2. 66Cuiabano
  3. 4A. Saldivia
  4. 96Paulo Henrique
  1. 1Léo Jardim

Computed on October 28, 2026 at 02:47 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Palmeiras have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Vasco DA Gama have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Palmeiras
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026RB Bragantino(home)2-0Serie A
Oct 22, 2026Fluminense(home)0-1CONMEBOL Libertadores
Oct 17, 2026Atletico Paranaense(away)2-0Serie A
Oct 15, 2026Fluminense(away)2-1CONMEBOL Libertadores
Oct 11, 2026Corinthians(home)4-1Serie A
Vasco DA Gama
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026Corinthians(home)3-2Serie A
Oct 21, 2026Boca Juniors(home)1-3CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Oct 18, 2026Sao Paulo(away)0-1Serie A
Oct 14, 2026Boca Juniors(away)1-0CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Oct 10, 2026Remo(home)0-0Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Palmeiras wins, 0 draws, 1 Vasco DA Gama win.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 23, 2026Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA GamaSerie A
Mar 12, 2026Vasco DA Gama 2-1 PalmeirasSerie A
Oct 1, 2025Palmeiras 3-0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A
May 4, 2025Vasco DA Gama 0-1 PalmeirasSerie A
Sep 22, 2024Vasco DA Gama 0-1 PalmeirasSerie A
Jun 14, 2024Palmeiras 2-0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A

Last archived meeting: Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama on Aug 23, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Palmeiras score 1.6 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Vasco DA Gama score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Palmeiras1.60.595/155/15
Vasco DA Gama1.50.976/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
The Footlab AI model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Vasco DA Gama.
Where and when is Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama played?
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama is played on November 1, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Allianz Parque, in the Copa Do Brasil.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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