Match

Gremio vs Atletico-MG: prediction and stats

Copa Do BrasilSemi-finalsKick-off on November 1, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul

GremioAtletico-MG

The Footlab AI model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Gremio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico-MG wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,598 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Gremio vs Atletico-MG?

Atletico-MG starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,854 vs 1,741).

34%29%37%
Gremio winDrawAtletico-MG win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Gremio vs Atletico-MG

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Gremio

4-2-3-1
  1. 95Carlos Vinícius
  1. 20M. Villasanti
  2. 7C. Pavón
  3. 9F. Amuzu
  4. 10F. Krovinović
  5. 15Danilo Barbosa
  1. 4W. Kannemann
  2. 27Diego Caito
  3. 23Marlon
  4. 82Wallace
  1. 1Weverton

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1
  1. 19Reinier
  1. 11Bernard
  2. 28T. Cuello
  3. 8Maycon
  4. 15K. Castaño
  5. 30Victor Hugo
  1. 6Renan Lodi
  2. 13Lyanco
  3. 21A. Franco
  4. 40Vitão
  1. 1Gabriel Delfim

Computed on October 26, 2026 at 04:23 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gremio have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Atletico-MG have 8, 4 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Gremio
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Cruzeiro(home)2-4Serie A
Oct 11, 2026Internacional(home)1-1Serie A
Oct 7, 2026Remo(away)1-1Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Palmeiras(home)0-0Serie A
Sep 16, 2026Botafogo(away)2-3Serie A
Atletico-MG
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 21, 2026Atletico Torque(away)0-2CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Oct 17, 2026Coritiba(home)1-0Serie A
Oct 14, 2026Atletico Torque(home)3-0CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Oct 11, 2026Santos(home)2-1Serie A
Oct 8, 2026Atletico Paranaense(away)2-2Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Gremio wins, 0 draws, 3 Atletico-MG wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 16, 2026Atletico-MG 3-0 GremioSerie A
Feb 26, 2026Gremio 2-1 Atletico-MGSerie A
Aug 17, 2025Atletico-MG 1-3 GremioSerie A
Mar 29, 2025Gremio 2-1 Atletico-MGSerie A
Oct 9, 2024Atletico-MG 2-1 GremioSerie A
Sep 1, 2024Gremio 2-3 Atletico-MGSerie A

Last archived meeting: Atletico-MG vs Gremio on Aug 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Gremio score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico-MG score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Gremio1.11.339/157/15
Atletico-MG1.51.148/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Gremio vs Atletico-MG?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Gremio.
Where and when is Gremio vs Atletico-MG played?
Gremio vs Atletico-MG is played on November 1, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Arena do Grêmio, in the Copa Do Brasil.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Gremio and Atletico-MG

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