Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 34Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena da Baixada, Curitiba, Paraná
The Footlab model makes Atletico Paranaense the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Vasco DA Gama. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Atletico Paranaense (1,997) and Vasco DA Gama (1,916).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Paranaense have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Vasco DA Gama have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Santos(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 1-4 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Olimpia(away) | 4-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Santos(home) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Olimpia(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bahia(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atletico Paranaense win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Vasco DA Gama win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2024 | Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Vasco DA Gama | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 29, 2024 | Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Atletico Paranaense | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| May 5, 2024 | Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Atletico Paranaense 0-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Paranaense score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Vasco DA Gama score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 1.3 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Vasco DA Gama | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd in Serie A (41 points from 23 matches) and Vasco DA Gama sit 19th (22 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 41 |
| 19 | Vasco DA Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Paranaense the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Vasco DA Gama.
- Where and when is Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama played?
- Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama is played on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena da Baixada, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.