Paris Saint Germain vs Lens: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 22Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Parc des Princes, Paris
The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Lens. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lens?
Paris Saint Germain starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (2,293 vs 2,180).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paris Saint Germain have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Lens have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens(away) | 0-1 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Auxerre(home) | 5-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-0 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sunderland(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 3-1 | Como Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-0 | Como Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Paris Saint Germain win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Lens win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens 1-0 Paris Saint Germain | Trophée des Champions |
| May 13, 2026 | Lens 0-2 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Lens 1-2 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Lens 1-1 Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de France |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Lens | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Lens vs Paris Saint Germain on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Paris Saint Germain score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lens score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Lens | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paris Saint Germain sit 9th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and Lens sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paris Saint Germain vs Lens?
- The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Lens.
- Where and when is Paris Saint Germain vs Lens played?
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lens is played on February 28, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Parc des Princes, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.