Parma vs AC Milan: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 35Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Parma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Parma vs AC Milan?
AC Milan starts as the favourite with a 196-point Elo edge (2,135 vs 1,939).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Parma have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; AC Milan have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cagliari(home) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Catania(home) | 2-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sampdoria(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Arezzo(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Torino(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Parma win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 AC Milan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | AC Milan 0-1 Parma | Serie A |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Parma 2-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Jan 26, 2025 | AC Milan 3-2 Parma | Serie A |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Parma 2-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Apr 10, 2021 | Parma 1-3 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 13, 2020 | AC Milan 2-2 Parma | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Parma score 0.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; AC Milan score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 0.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 2/15 |
| AC Milan | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Parma sit 15th in Serie A (0 points from 1 matches) and AC Milan sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Parma vs AC Milan?
- The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Parma.
- Where and when is Parma vs AC Milan played?
- Parma vs AC Milan is played on May 9, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Ennio Tardini, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.