Parvoz vs Istiqlol: prediction and stats
Vysshaya LigaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Furudgokh, Ghafurov
The Footlab model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 78%, against 15% for a draw and 6% for Parvoz. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Parvoz vs Istiqlol?
Istiqlol is a heavy favourite: 1,727 Elo points against 1,180 — a 547-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Parvoz have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Istiqlol have 10, 5 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Regar-TadAZ(away) | 0-3 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(home) | 2-4 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Istaravshan(away) | 1-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Barki Tajik(away) | 0-2 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 12, 2026 | CSKA Pomir(away) | 2-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ravshan(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Sardor Tursunzoda(away) | 1-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Istaravshan(away) | 2-1 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 16, 2026 | Eskhata(away) | 0-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
| May 9, 2026 | Barki Tajik(home) | 2-0 | Vysshaya Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Parvoz win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Istiqlol win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Istiqlol 3-0 Parvoz | Vysshaya Liga |
| Oct 10, 2016 | Istiqlol 8-2 Parvoz | Vysshaya Liga |
| Apr 7, 2016 | Parvoz 0-4 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Oct 26, 2015 | Parvoz 0-8 Istiqlol | Vysshaya Liga |
| Apr 24, 2015 | Istiqlol 8-0 Parvoz | Vysshaya Liga |
| Oct 16, 2014 | Istiqlol 5-1 Parvoz | Vysshaya Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Parvoz score 0.8 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Istiqlol score 1.5 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parvoz | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Istiqlol | 1.5 | 0.4 | 9 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Parvoz sit 10th in Vysshaya Liga (12 points from 14 matches) and Istiqlol sit 3rd (28 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Istiqlol | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 28 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Parvoz vs Istiqlol?
- The Footlab model makes Istiqlol the favourite at 78%, against 15% for a draw and 6% for Parvoz.
- Where and when is Parvoz vs Istiqlol played?
- Parvoz vs Istiqlol is played on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Furudgokh, in the Vysshaya Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.