Penafiel vs Felgueiras 1932: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
The Footlab model makes Felgueiras 1932 the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Penafiel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penafiel vs Felgueiras 1932?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Penafiel (1,872) and Felgueiras 1932 (1,932).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penafiel have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Felgueiras 1932 have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Farense(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | AVS(home) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Feirense(away) | 0-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Penafiel win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Felgueiras 1932 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932 0-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Penafiel 2-0 Felgueiras 1932 | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Felgueiras 1932 1-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Penafiel 2-1 Felgueiras 1932 | Segunda Liga |
Last archived meeting: Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Penafiel score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Felgueiras 1932 score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Felgueiras 1932 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penafiel sit 7th in Segunda Liga (4 points from 3 matches) and Felgueiras 1932 sit 11th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penafiel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Felgueiras 1932 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penafiel vs Felgueiras 1932?
- The Footlab model makes Felgueiras 1932 the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Penafiel.
- Where and when is Penafiel vs Felgueiras 1932 played?
- Penafiel vs Felgueiras 1932 is played on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.