Tondela vs Portimonense: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela
The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Portimonense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Tondela wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,974 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tondela vs Portimonense?
Tondela starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (2,012 vs 1,898).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tondela vs Portimonense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tondela
4-2-3-1- 19Tómané
- 20Hugo Félix
- 7Cascavel
- 97Cícero
- 37Sarará
- 8Hélder Tavares
- 12Zé Ricardo
- 4Christian Marques
- 15Carraça
- 6Farru
- 28Araujo Carlos
Portimonense
3-4-3- 7Danio Djassi
- 2Edney
- 10S. Nakajima
- 15Xavier
- 8João Casimiro
- 9S. Yépié Yépié
- 21Yanis da Rocha
- 6S. Neves
- 17João Reis
- 3Jarleysom Amurim
- 1Dudu
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 06:38 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tondela have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Portimonense have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Florgrade(away) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Amarante(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Castro Daire(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tondela(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tondela wins, 1 draw, 2 Portimonense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portimonense 0-2 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Portimonense 2-2 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Tondela 2-0 Portimonense | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 30, 2022 | Portimonense 1-2 Tondela | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 22, 2021 | Tondela 0-3 Portimonense | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 6, 2021 | Portimonense 3-0 Tondela | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Portimonense vs Tondela on Sep 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tondela score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Portimonense score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Portimonense | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tondela sit 7th in Segunda Liga (12 points from 7 matches) and Portimonense sit 11th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 12 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
A question about Tondela vs Portimonense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tondela vs Portimonense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tondela the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Portimonense.
- Where and when is Tondela vs Portimonense played?
- Tondela vs Portimonense is played on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio João Cardoso, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.