Penrhyncoch vs Caersws: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 14Kick-off on November 6, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Cae Baker, Penrhyncoch, Ceredigion
The Footlab AI model makes Caersws the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Penrhyncoch. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penrhyncoch vs Caersws?
Caersws starts as the favourite with a 170-point Elo edge (1,679 vs 1,509).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Penrhyncoch vs Caersws
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Penrhyncoch
Not enough data to predict the Penrhyncoch lineup.
Caersws
Not enough data to predict the Caersws lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:40 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penrhyncoch have 3 wins, 1 draw and 11 defeats; Caersws have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Llanuwchllyn(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Bala Town(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bangor City 1876 FC(home) | 1-5 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Holyhead Hotspur(away) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bala Town(home) | 3-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Llanuwchllyn(away) | 5-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(home) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Penrhyncoch wins, 1 draw, 1 Caersws win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Caersws 1-2 Penrhyncoch | FAW Championship |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Penrhyncoch 1-3 Caersws | FAW Championship |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Caersws 1-2 Penrhyncoch | FAW Championship |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Penrhyncoch 4-1 Caersws | FAW Championship |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Penrhyncoch 1-1 Caersws | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Caersws vs Penrhyncoch on Apr 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Penrhyncoch score 0.9 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Caersws score 2.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penrhyncoch | 0.9 | 2.5 | 1 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
| Caersws | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penrhyncoch sit 16th in FAW Championship (1 point from 11 matches) and Caersws sit 6th (18 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 18 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
A question about Penrhyncoch vs Caersws?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penrhyncoch vs Caersws?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caersws the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Penrhyncoch.
- Where and when is Penrhyncoch vs Caersws played?
- Penrhyncoch vs Caersws is played on November 6, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Cae Baker, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.