Penrhyncoch vs Denbigh Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 5Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Cae Baker, Penrhyncoch, Ceredigion
The Footlab model makes Penrhyncoch the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Denbigh Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penrhyncoch vs Denbigh Town?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Penrhyncoch (1,538) and Denbigh Town (1,581).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penrhyncoch have 7 wins, 0 draws and 8 defeats; Denbigh Town have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(away) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newtown AFC(away) | 0-5 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Porthmadog(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Rhyl(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Porthmadog(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bangor 1876(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Buckley Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Penrhyncoch win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Denbigh Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Denbigh Town 1-0 Penrhyncoch | FAW Championship |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Penrhyncoch 1-1 Denbigh Town | FAW Championship |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Denbigh Town 3-0 Penrhyncoch | FAW Championship |
| Aug 26, 2024 | Penrhyncoch 4-2 Denbigh Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Denbigh Town vs Penrhyncoch on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Penrhyncoch score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Denbigh Town score 1.4 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penrhyncoch | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Denbigh Town | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penrhyncoch sit 15th in FAW Championship (0 points from 3 matches) and Denbigh Town sit 12th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| 15 | Penrhyncoch | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penrhyncoch vs Denbigh Town?
- The Footlab model makes Penrhyncoch the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Denbigh Town.
- Where and when is Penrhyncoch vs Denbigh Town played?
- Penrhyncoch vs Denbigh Town is played on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Cae Baker, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.