Penybont vs Airbus UK: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)SDM Glass Stadium, Bridgend, Bridgend County Borough
The Footlab model makes Airbus UK the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Penybont. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penybont vs Airbus UK?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Penybont (1,878) and Airbus UK (1,909).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penybont have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Airbus UK have 12, 0 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Santa Coloma(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cardiff MET(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Penybont win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Airbus UK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2023 | Penybont 2-0 Airbus UK | Premier League |
| Oct 15, 2022 | Airbus UK 0-3 Penybont | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2019 | Airbus UK 1-2 Penybont | Premier League |
| Sep 21, 2019 | Penybont 3-1 Airbus UK | Premier League |
| Dec 3, 2016 | Penybont 4-1 Airbus UK | Welsh Cup |
| Dec 7, 2013 | Penybont 0-2 Airbus UK | Welsh Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Penybont score 0.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Airbus UK score 2.9 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penybont | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Airbus UK | 2.9 | 0.6 | 9 | 4/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penybont sit 3rd in Premier League (10 points from 4 matches) and Airbus UK sit 11th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Penybont | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Airbus UK | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penybont vs Airbus UK?
- The Footlab model makes Airbus UK the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Penybont.
- Where and when is Penybont vs Airbus UK played?
- Penybont vs Airbus UK is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at SDM Glass Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.