Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Jenner Park, Barry / Y Barri, Vale of Glamorgan
The Footlab model makes Barry Town the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for GAP Connah S Quay FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Barry Town (1,951) and GAP Connah S Quay FC (1,945).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barry Town have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; GAP Connah S Quay FC have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Holywell(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cardiff MET(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Flint Town United(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Gloucester City(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 6-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Holywell(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Ballkani(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Barry Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 GAP Connah S Quay FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-1 Barry Town | Premier League |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Barry Town 1-0 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 3-1 Barry Town | Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Barry Town 0-0 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Apr 13, 2025 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 0-2 Barry Town | Premier League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Barry Town 0-2 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Barry Town on Mar 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barry Town score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; GAP Connah S Quay FC score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Town | 1.9 | 0.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barry Town sit 1st in Premier League (12 points from 4 matches) and GAP Connah S Quay FC sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barry Town | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
- The Footlab model makes Barry Town the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for GAP Connah S Quay FC.
- Where and when is Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC played?
- Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Jenner Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.