Penybont vs Caernarfon Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 6, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)SDM Glass Stadium, Bridgend, Bridgend County Borough
The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 36% for Penybont. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Penybont (1,880) and Caernarfon Town (1,914).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penybont have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Caernarfon Town have 9, 0 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Santa Coloma(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trefelin(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Penybont(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Penybont win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Caernarfon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 1-2 Penybont | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 2-0 Penybont | Premier League |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Penybont 0-0 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Penybont 0-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 1-2 Penybont | Premier League |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Penybont 3-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Caernarfon Town vs Penybont on Aug 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Penybont score 0.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Caernarfon Town score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penybont | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Caernarfon Town | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penybont sit 3rd in Premier League (10 points from 4 matches) and Caernarfon Town sit 6th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Penybont | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 36% for Penybont.
- Where and when is Penybont vs Caernarfon Town played?
- Penybont vs Caernarfon Town is played on November 6, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at SDM Glass Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.