Penybont vs Caernarfon Town: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 6, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)SDM Glass Stadium, Bridgend, Bridgend County Borough
The Footlab AI model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Penybont. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caernarfon Town wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Penybont (1,981) and Caernarfon Town (1,999).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Penybont
4-3-3- 7N. Wood
- 23T. Walker
- 20M. Manga
- 4T. Mehew
- 8Owen Robert Pritchard
- 19R. Hill
- 32L. Shephard
- 6M. Davies
- 17D. Jefferies
- 33E. Vaughan
- 22A. Pennock
Caernarfon Town
4-3-3- 11A. Cieślewicz
- 9Z. Clarke
- 10O. Evans
- 6J. Canavan
- 14N. Edwards
- 19S. Bradley
- 16B. Nash
- 23C. Marriott
- 27R. Sears
- 5P. Mooney
- 13H. Thomas
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penybont have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Caernarfon Town have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Barry Town(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Airbus UK(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Briton Ferry(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Barry Town(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff MET(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(home) | 9-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Llandudno(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Penybont wins, 1 draw, 2 Caernarfon Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 1-2 Penybont | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Caernarfon Town 2-0 Penybont | Premier League |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Penybont 0-0 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Penybont 0-2 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Caernarfon Town 1-2 Penybont | Premier League |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Penybont 3-1 Caernarfon Town | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Caernarfon Town vs Penybont on Aug 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Penybont score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Caernarfon Town score 2.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penybont | 1.7 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Caernarfon Town | 2.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penybont sit 3rd in Premier League (30 points from 13 matches) and Caernarfon Town sit 4th (26 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 26 |
A question about Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penybont vs Caernarfon Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caernarfon Town the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Penybont.
- Where and when is Penybont vs Caernarfon Town played?
- Penybont vs Caernarfon Town is played on November 6, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at SDM Glass Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.