Penybont vs Briton Ferry: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 15, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)SDM Glass Stadium, Bridgend, Bridgend County Borough
The Footlab model makes Penybont the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Briton Ferry. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penybont vs Briton Ferry?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Penybont (1,876) and Briton Ferry (1,819).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penybont have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Briton Ferry have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Santa Coloma(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Flint Town United(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | The New Saints(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambrian & Clydach(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Penybont win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Briton Ferry win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2025 | Penybont 1-1 Briton Ferry | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Briton Ferry 0-5 Penybont | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Briton Ferry 0-0 Penybont | Premier League |
| Sep 10, 2025 | Penybont 2-2 Briton Ferry | League Cup |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Penybont 0-1 Briton Ferry | Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Briton Ferry 0-2 Penybont | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Penybont vs Briton Ferry on Dec 26, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Penybont score 0.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Briton Ferry score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penybont | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Briton Ferry | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penybont sit 3rd in Premier League (10 points from 4 matches) and Briton Ferry sit 8th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Penybont | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Briton Ferry | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penybont vs Briton Ferry?
- The Footlab model makes Penybont the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Briton Ferry.
- Where and when is Penybont vs Briton Ferry played?
- Penybont vs Briton Ferry is played on September 15, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at SDM Glass Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.