The New Saints vs Penybont: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Park Hall Stadium, Oswestry / Croesoswallt, Shropshire
The Footlab AI model makes The New Saints the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Penybont. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,204 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win The New Saints vs Penybont?
The New Saints starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (2,146 vs 1,964).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for The New Saints vs Penybont
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
The New Saints
4-3-3- 9Bradley Jamie Ethan Young
- 17J. Williams
- 28B. Wilson
- 20R. Hughes
- 14D. Williams
- 34J. Lock
- 6J. Bodenham
- 16D. Simeu
- 22D. Davies
- 12Harvey George Godsmark-Ford
- 1N. Shepperd
Penybont
4-3-3- 7N. Wood
- 23T. Walker
- 20M. Manga
- 4T. Mehew
- 19R. Hill
- 8Owen Robert Pritchard
- 32L. Shephard
- 6M. Davies
- 17D. Jefferies
- 3M. Melbourne
- 25A. Pennock
Computed on November 9, 2026 at 06:53 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, The New Saints have 14 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats; Penybont have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | Llandudno(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(home) | 9-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Airbus UK(away) | 2-1 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Holywell(away) | 6-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Cardiff MET(away) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 3-2 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Barry Town(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 The New Saints wins, 1 draw, 1 Penybont win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Penybont 0-0 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Penybont 1-2 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Feb 7, 2026 | The New Saints 6-0 Penybont | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2025 | The New Saints 6-2 Penybont | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Penybont 0-2 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Penybont 1-0 The New Saints | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Penybont vs The New Saints on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
The New Saints score 3.6 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Penybont score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New Saints | 3.6 | 0.5 | 9 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
| Penybont | 2.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The New Saints sit 1st in Premier League (44 points from 16 matches) and Penybont sit 3rd (36 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 54 | 6 | 44 |
| 3 | Penybont | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 11 | 36 |
A question about The New Saints vs Penybont?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for The New Saints vs Penybont?
- The Footlab AI model makes The New Saints the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Penybont.
- Where and when is The New Saints vs Penybont played?
- The New Saints vs Penybont is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Park Hall Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.