The New Saints vs Penybont: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Park Hall Stadium, Oswestry / Croesoswallt, Shropshire
The Footlab model makes The New Saints the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Penybont. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win The New Saints vs Penybont?
The New Saints starts as the favourite with a 202-point Elo edge (2,082 vs 1,880).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, The New Saints have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Penybont have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cardiff MET(away) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Briton Ferry(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Penybont(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Santa Coloma(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 The New Saints win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Penybont win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Penybont 0-0 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Penybont 1-2 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Feb 7, 2026 | The New Saints 6-0 Penybont | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2025 | The New Saints 6-2 Penybont | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Penybont 0-2 The New Saints | Premier League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Penybont 1-0 The New Saints | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Penybont vs The New Saints on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
The New Saints score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Penybont score 0.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New Saints | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Penybont | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The New Saints sit 2nd in Premier League (10 points from 4 matches) and Penybont sit 3rd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | The New Saints | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Penybont | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for The New Saints vs Penybont?
- The Footlab model makes The New Saints the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Penybont.
- Where and when is The New Saints vs Penybont played?
- The New Saints vs Penybont is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Park Hall Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.