Penybont vs Colwyn Bay: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)SDM Glass Stadium, Bridgend, Bridgend County Borough
The Footlab model makes Penybont the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Colwyn Bay. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penybont vs Colwyn Bay?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Penybont (1,876) and Colwyn Bay (1,882).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penybont have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Colwyn Bay have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Santa Coloma(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Airbus UK(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bootle(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Penybont win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Colwyn Bay win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Colwyn Bay 0-0 Penybont | Premier League |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Penybont 0-0 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Colwyn Bay 3-1 Penybont | Premier League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Colwyn Bay 5-4 Penybont | Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Penybont 1-0 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Penybont 5-0 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Colwyn Bay vs Penybont on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Penybont score 0.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Colwyn Bay score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penybont | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Colwyn Bay | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penybont sit 3rd in Premier League (10 points from 4 matches) and Colwyn Bay sit 9th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Penybont | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Colwyn Bay | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penybont vs Colwyn Bay?
- The Footlab model makes Penybont the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Colwyn Bay.
- Where and when is Penybont vs Colwyn Bay played?
- Penybont vs Colwyn Bay is played on September 4, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at SDM Glass Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.