Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 08:00 AM (UTC)HBF Park, Perth
The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Perth Glory. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory?
Melbourne Victory starts as the favourite with a 183-point Elo edge (1,900 vs 1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Perth Glory have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Melbourne Victory have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Lions(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 0-0 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Macarthur(home) | 3-1 | A-League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kingborough Lions(away) | 4-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 0-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 2-0 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Perth Glory win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Melbourne Victory win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 3-2 Perth Glory | A-League |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Perth Glory 0-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 3-0 Perth Glory | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 1-0 Perth Glory | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Perth Glory 0-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 2-0 Perth Glory | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory on Jan 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Perth Glory score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne Victory score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perth Glory | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Melbourne Victory | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Perth Glory sit 10th in A-League (31 points from 26 matches) and Melbourne Victory sit 4th (40 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 33 | 40 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 39 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Perth Glory.
- Where and when is Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory played?
- Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory is played on March 14, 2027 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at HBF Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.