Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 08:00 AM (UTC)HBF Park, Perth
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Perth Glory. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne Victory wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory?
Melbourne Victory starts as the favourite with a 216-point Elo edge (1,923 vs 1,707).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Perth Glory
4-1-4-1- 22A. Taggart
- 13H. Hore
- 16Lucas Scicluna
- 7N. Pennington
- 27W. Freney
- 9J. Kucharski
- 45B. Kaltak
- 24A. Lebib
- 4S. Wootton
- 3S. Sutton
- 33M. Sutton
Melbourne Victory
4-4-2- 44C. Nduka
- 9H. Sawyer
- 8J. Valadon
- 14M. Grimaldi
- 23K. Jelacic
- 11Clarismario Rodrigues
- 16J. Inserra
- 3J. Davidson
- 18F. Lino
- 15T. Lockyer
- 25J. Duncan
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:02 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Perth Glory have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Melbourne Victory have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Lions(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 0-0 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | FC Seoul(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Viettel(away) | 1-1 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 2-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 19, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Perth Glory wins, 0 draws, 6 Melbourne Victory wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 3-2 Perth Glory | A-League |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Perth Glory 0-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 3-0 Perth Glory | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 1-0 Perth Glory | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Perth Glory 0-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Melbourne Victory 2-0 Perth Glory | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory on Jan 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Perth Glory score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne Victory score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perth Glory | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Melbourne Victory | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Perth Glory sit 10th in A-League (31 points from 26 matches) and Melbourne Victory sit 4th (40 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 33 | 40 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 39 | 31 |
A question about Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Perth Glory.
- Where and when is Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory played?
- Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory is played on March 14, 2027 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at HBF Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.