Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC)Industree Group Stadium, Gosford
The Footlab model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Central Coast Mariners. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Central Coast Mariners (1,759) and Wellington Phoenix (1,771).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Central Coast Mariners have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Wellington Phoenix have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sydney United(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(home) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Central Coast Mariners win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Wellington Phoenix win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 3-1 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Central Coast Mariners 1-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 0-0 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 0-3 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Wellington Phoenix | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners on Dec 21, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Central Coast Mariners score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Coast Mariners | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Central Coast Mariners sit 9th in A-League (32 points from 26 matches) and Wellington Phoenix sit 8th (33 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 42 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix?
- The Footlab model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Central Coast Mariners.
- Where and when is Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix played?
- Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix is played on March 13, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC) at Industree Group Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.