Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on April 30, 2027 at 11:45 AM (UTC)HBF Park, Perth
The Footlab model makes Perth Glory the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Perth Glory (1,717) and Wellington Phoenix (1,771).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Perth Glory have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Wellington Phoenix have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Lions(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 0-0 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Macarthur(home) | 3-1 | A-League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Perth Glory win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Wellington Phoenix win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix 2-0 Perth Glory | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Perth Glory 2-2 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Perth Glory 1-1 Wellington Phoenix | Australia Cup |
| May 4, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 0-2 Perth Glory | A-League |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Perth Glory 0-2 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Perth Glory 0-0 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Perth Glory score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perth Glory | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Perth Glory sit 10th in A-League (31 points from 26 matches) and Wellington Phoenix sit 8th (33 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 39 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix?
- The Footlab model makes Perth Glory the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Wellington Phoenix.
- Where and when is Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix played?
- Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix is played on April 30, 2027 at 11:45 AM (UTC) at HBF Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.