Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on May 7, 2027 at 09:40 AM (UTC)Allianz Stadium, Sydney
The Footlab AI model makes Sydney the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sydney wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,527 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix?
Sydney starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,888 vs 1,719).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sydney
4-2-3-1- 9O. Sunday
- 20T. Quintal
- 14T. Sekine
- 15J. Hollman
- 36R. Youlley
- 35A. Toure
- 23R. Grant
- 17B. Garuccio
- 4J. Courtney-Perkins
- 41A. Popovic
- 12Harrison Devenish-Meares
Wellington Phoenix
4-4-2- 7I. Eze
- 3C. Piper
- 25K. Nagasawa
- 8P. Retre
- 20R. Najjarine
- 14A. Rufer
- 28B. Tuiloma
- 15I. Hughes
- 6T. Payne
- 18L. Kelly-Heald
- 1J. Oluwayemi
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sydney have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Wellington Phoenix have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 0-0 | A-League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(home) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 18, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 4-2 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sydney wins, 2 draws, 2 Wellington Phoenix wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Sydney | A-League |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Sydney 0-2 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Sydney 1-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Jan 15, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 0-0 Sydney | A-League |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Sydney | A-League |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Sydney 3-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sydney score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sydney | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sydney the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Wellington Phoenix.
- Where and when is Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix played?
- Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix is played on May 7, 2027 at 09:40 AM (UTC) at Allianz Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.