Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 05:00 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Central Coast Mariners. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne City wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,597 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners?
Melbourne City starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,860 vs 1,741).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Melbourne City
4-2-3-1- 15A. Nabbout
- 14Besian Kutleshi
- 24Kavian Rahmani
- 23M. Memeti
- 11A. Mabil
- 19Q. Macnicol
- 13N. Atkinson
- 2H. Delbridge
- 4L. Bonetig
- 16A. Behich
- 1M. Freke
Central Coast Mariners
4-4-2- 9O. Lavale
- 37B. Brandtman
- 72A. Auglah
- 8C. Donnell
- 6H. Eames
- 41Shumba Mutokoyi
- 5L. Mauragis
- 15S. Roux
- 12Noah McCann
- 3Samuel Dikoš
- 30A. Redmayne
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 12:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne City have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Central Coast Mariners have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Weston Bears(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(home) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vanuatu United(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Vanuatu United(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sydney United(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Melbourne City wins, 2 draws, 2 Central Coast Mariners wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2026 | Melbourne City 2-1 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Central Coast Mariners 0-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Melbourne City 1-0 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 1-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners on Apr 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Central Coast Mariners score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Central Coast Mariners | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Melbourne City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
A question about Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Central Coast Mariners.
- Where and when is Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners played?
- Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners is played on May 1, 2027 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.