Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on April 30, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Brisbane Roar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets?
Newcastle Jets starts as the favourite with a 205-point Elo edge (1,890 vs 1,685).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brisbane Roar have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Newcastle Jets have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 2-4 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sydney Olympic(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 2-3 | A-League |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-3 | Australia Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Brisbane Roar win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Newcastle Jets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Newcastle Jets 4-1 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Brisbane Roar 3-0 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 1-3 Brisbane Roar | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 3-1 Brisbane Roar | A-League |
| Jan 7, 2025 | Brisbane Roar 0-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Brisbane Roar 0-2 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Brisbane Roar score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle Jets score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Roar | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Newcastle Jets | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Brisbane Roar sit 11th in A-League (26 points from 26 matches) and Newcastle Jets sit 1st (48 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 48 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 36 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle Jets the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Brisbane Roar.
- Where and when is Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets played?
- Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets is played on April 30, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Suncorp Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.