Pistoiese vs Varesina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 21Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Marcello Melani, Pistoia
The Footlab AI model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Varesina. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,192 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pistoiese vs Varesina?
Pistoiese starts as the favourite with a 216-point Elo edge (1,941 vs 1,725).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pistoiese vs Varesina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pistoiese
Not enough data to predict the Pistoiese lineup.
Varesina
Not enough data to predict the Varesina lineup.
Computed on November 9, 2026 at 08:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pistoiese have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Varesina have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Pro Patria(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Castellanzese(home) | 4-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Pavia(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Correggese(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Coriano(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Città di Varese(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Castellanzese(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Pro Sesto(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pavia(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Pistoiese win, 0 draws, 0 Varesina wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Varesina 0-1 Pistoiese | Serie D - Girone D |
Last archived meeting: Varesina vs Pistoiese on Sep 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pistoiese score 2.0 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Varesina score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pistoiese | 2.0 | 0.6 | 10 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
| Varesina | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pistoiese sit 1st in Serie D - Girone D (28 points from 11 matches) and Varesina sit 14th (11 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 5 | 28 |
| 14 | Varesina | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 11 |
A question about Pistoiese vs Varesina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pistoiese vs Varesina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pistoiese the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Varesina.
- Where and when is Pistoiese vs Varesina played?
- Pistoiese vs Varesina is played on January 24, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Marcello Melani, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.