Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Highmark Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Pittsburgh Riverhounds. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Pittsburgh Riverhounds (1,805) and Tampa Bay Rowdies (1,858).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pittsburgh Riverhounds have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Tampa Bay Rowdies have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Brooklyn(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charleston Battery(home) | 3-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sacramento Republic(home) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Oakland Roots(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 29, 2026 | FC Tulsa(home) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Detroit City(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rhode Island(home) | 2-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 0-0 | USL League One Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 3-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Louisville City(home) | 5-4 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Pittsburgh Riverhounds win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Tampa Bay Rowdies win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-2 Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pittsburgh Riverhounds score 1.0 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Tampa Bay Rowdies score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1.0 | 0.6 | 8 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pittsburgh Riverhounds sit 5th in USL Championship (19 points from 11 matches) and Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st (28 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 28 |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 20 | 44 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 21 | 33 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
- The Footlab model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Pittsburgh Riverhounds.
- Where and when is Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies played?
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies is played on August 29, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Highmark Stadium, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots