Police vs Marines: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 22, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Kigali Pelé Stadium, Kigali
The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Marines. The most likely score is 1-1. If Police wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,591 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Police vs Marines?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Police (1,690) and Marines (1,647).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Police vs Marines
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Police
Not enough data to predict the Police lineup.
Marines
Not enough data to predict the Marines lineup.
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Police have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Marines have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Gorilla(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sunrise(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Gicumbi(home) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 28, 2026 | Gasogi United(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Etincelles(away) | 4-0 | National Soccer League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | APR(away) | 2-4 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AS Kigali(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Muhanga(home) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Police wins, 0 draws, 1 Marines win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Police 2-0 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Marines 1-2 Police | National Soccer League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Police 4-0 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Marines 0-1 Police | National Soccer League |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Marines 2-1 Police | National Soccer League |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Police 2-1 Marines | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
Police score 0.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Marines score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Police | 0.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Marines | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Police sit 9th in National Soccer League (4 points from 4 matches) and Marines sit 6th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Marines | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | Police | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
A question about Police vs Marines?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Police vs Marines?
- The Footlab AI model makes Police the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Marines.
- Where and when is Police vs Marines played?
- Police vs Marines is played on May 22, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Kigali Pelé Stadium, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.