Polisi Tanzania vs Mbeya City: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, Morogoro
The Footlab model makes Polisi Tanzania the favourite at 59%, against 26% for a draw and 15% for Mbeya City. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polisi Tanzania vs Mbeya City?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Polisi Tanzania (1,490) and Mbeya City (1,506).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polisi Tanzania have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Mbeya City have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(away) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 20, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Azam(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Tanzania Prisons(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 9, 2023 | Azam(away) | 0-8 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Geita Gold(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Polisi Tanzania win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Mbeya City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2023 | Polisi Tanzania 0-1 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 14, 2022 | Mbeya City 3-1 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 15, 2022 | Mbeya City 0-0 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 27, 2021 | Polisi Tanzania 0-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 21, 2021 | Polisi Tanzania 0-1 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 5, 2020 | Mbeya City 1-1 Polisi Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Polisi Tanzania vs Mbeya City on Feb 23, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Polisi Tanzania score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mbeya City score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polisi Tanzania | 1.0 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Mbeya City | 0.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polisi Tanzania sit 3rd in Ligi kuu Bara (7 points from 3 matches) and Mbeya City sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Polisi Tanzania | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Mbeya City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polisi Tanzania vs Mbeya City?
- The Footlab model makes Polisi Tanzania the favourite at 59%, against 26% for a draw and 15% for Mbeya City.
- Where and when is Polisi Tanzania vs Mbeya City played?
- Polisi Tanzania vs Mbeya City is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.