Azam vs Simba: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Azam Complex Stadium, Mbagala
The Footlab model calls this one tight: 35% for Azam, 36% for a draw, 30% for Simba. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Azam vs Simba?
Simba starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,922 vs 1,818).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Azam have 12 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Simba have 13, 2 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Coastal Union(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(away) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(away) | 2-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Jamus(away) | 0-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Azam win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Simba win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Azam 0-0 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Azam 1-0 Simba | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Simba 0-2 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 24, 2025 | Simba 2-2 Azam | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Azam 0-2 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 9, 2024 | Azam 0-3 Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
How many goals should we expect?
Azam score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Simba score 1.8 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 24% probability of over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azam | 1.9 | 0.7 | 10 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Simba | 1.8 | 0.3 | 10 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Azam sit 2nd in Ligi kuu Bara (7 points from 3 matches) and Simba sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Azam | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Azam vs Simba?
- The Footlab model calls this one tight: 35% for Azam, 36% for a draw, 30% for Simba.
- Where and when is Azam vs Simba played?
- Azam vs Simba is played on September 9, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Azam Complex Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 24% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.