Where and when is Pontardawe Town vs Caerau (Ely) played?

Pontardawe Town vs Caerau (Ely) is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Parc Ynysderw, in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Pontardawe Town vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Parc Ynysderw, Swansea

Pontardawe Town

Caerau (Ely)

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 60%, against 19% for a draw and 21% for Pontardawe Town. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Pontardawe Town vs Caerau (Ely)?

Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 187-point Elo edge (1,654 vs 1,467).

Pontardawe Town win21 %

Draw19 %

Caerau (Ely) win60 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontardawe Town have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Pontardawe Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Afan Lido(away)	0-1	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Newport City(home)	0-4	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Pontypridd Town(away)	2-3	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Caerphilly Athletic(home)	3-0	FAW Championship
Apr 20, 2024	Baglan Dragons(away)	2-1	FAW Championship

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Pontardawe Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Caerau (Ely) win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 13, 2024	Caerau (Ely) 3-1 Pontardawe Town	FAW Championship
Jan 27, 2024	Pontardawe Town 3-6 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs Pontardawe Town on Apr 13, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Pontardawe Town score 1.3 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Pontardawe Town	1.3	2.1	3	7/15	10/15
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Pontardawe Town sit 13th in FAW Championship (3 points from 4 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 11th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
13	Pontardawe Town	4	1	0	3	5	8	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Pontardawe Town vs Caerau (Ely)?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 60%, against 19% for a draw and 21% for Pontardawe Town.
Where and when is Pontardawe Town vs Caerau (Ely) played?: Pontardawe Town vs Caerau (Ely) is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Parc Ynysderw, in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.